Ok, so anyone who thinks they truly know is kidding themselves. There is no clear frontrunner. But here’s how I think it will play out.

There are 5 acts that are in a class of their own. The relative position of these will be determined by how well each presents Saturday. I think it will go as follows:

1. Georgia – as they are the best of all 5. And they’re the only duet while all the rest are female vocalists.
2. Denmark – with Georgia pulling the Eastern vote, second place will go to a West Coast girl.
3. Ukraine – Zlata at her best is amazing. If not for Georgia, she would get first.
4. The Netherlands – Anouk comes next as another West Coast girl.
5. Russia – And Dina then brings it back from the East.

And in 6^th place will be… Moldova. Aliona has a beautiful song, presents it incredibly well, and the staging from her dress is easily the most powerful staging that adds to the song in the contest. I think few will vote her first but almost everyone will give her a point or two. And that adds up to a lot of points.

The rest of the top 14, in some order (listed here by running order) will be:

• Finland
• Germany
• Romania
• Iceland
• Azerbaijan
• Italy
• Norway
• Ireland

I was originally thinking the U.K. would end up 25^th or 26^th. But after some of the turkeys that won Thursday, Bonnie might break the top 20. But if she does – it will be barely.

Wow – Georgia!

Everything I heard said the best acts, the ones that were beyond sublime, were all in the Tuesday semi. And it sure seemed that way Thursday night. And then Georgia came out. I was expecting another mediocre song and wow. Absolutely beautiful. Totally enthralling. And even better because it was totally unexpected. They could well win. It’s now a top 5 fighting it out for first.

And it’s not Eurovision without a travesty. The drama of Eurovision requires that we have someone robbed of a deserved win. And last night Israel was the one to pay the price. Israel should have been in 5^th place at worst. And yet they didn’t make the top 10. And San Marino, while not as good as Israel (sorry wiwi), was definitely much better than some of the turkeys (Hungary & Armenia – was Europe on crack last night?).

So how was the show? There was no opening similar to Loreen on Tuesday. We did get the three singers taking us through previous Eurovision winners, but that was a repeat of Tuesday. So ok but nothing great from 8:00 – 9:00.

I sat in the stands this time. A very good seat. The view on average is better there. On the floor at times it is incredible (Loreen walked down the stairs 10′ from me walking directly toward me). But other times on the floor you can barely see the back of the performer. But the intensity, the vibe, the emersion, that is all much much greater on the floor. The people on the floor are 1,000% into the show. While up in the seats there were three girls of around 20 who spent the show talking to each other and texting people – I don’t think they ever watched the show. And it makes for a different experience.

San Marino was a good song. Very nice to watch. Valentina has a beautiful voice. If it had been in the Tuesday semi-final I could understand it not qualifying, although it was as good as some. But not making it out of Thursday’s semi – that makes no sense. It was good.

Azerbaijan was really really good. Everyone ignores them because they’re off in a forgotten edge of Europe and outside of oil company executives no one hears anything about them the rest of the year. But they send extraordinary acts year after year. They may become as big a musical powerhouse as Sweden for Eurovision. And last night they delivered again. Farid delivered an incredible song with emotional intensity. I think his staging hurt him some. It was clever, but really too clever and it made you focus on the staging at times rather than the staging adding to the song. I don’t think he is in the can win category, but I think he misses that by a whisker.

Finland was great. It’s a great song, well staged. And Krista appears to be having the time of her life performing it. Not quite in the top category, but damn close and very enjoyable. And as she is going on to the final, it will be interesting to see if Turkey broadcasts it. If her public persona is genuine, then she is clearly having more fun participating than anyone else.

Iceland – oh wow. For most of the song Eythor stands there and delivers. No staging, no effects, just his voice and his projection. And he delivers. And then his has background singers toward the end but it’s subtle and just adds to what he’s doing. It may be the only reason I don’t put him in the very top is I prefer female vocalists. Wonderful number.

Israel – beautiful song powerfully delivered. She drew everyone in and carried them through the song. Not the best of the evening but damn good (and deserving to go on).

Norway was good but I don’t think it lived up to its hype. Margaret sang beautifully. But she didn’t pull me in. It was watching a great performance, not being sucked into a great performance. However, that’s being in the arena. Watching on TV I don’t know if that’s as big an issue as it’s really hard to pull someone in via a TV screen. So really good, but not awesome.

Georgia – oh wow, oh wow, oh wow.

Romania – Some people say Cezar is the greatest Eurovision act ever. Some people say he is so bad, his participation will destroy Eurovision. I’m pretty sure one of the two groups is right, but even now the next day I don’t know which. His performance is almost a primal act of nature. I think his act will be talked about and remembered longer than any other. I’m glad to see he made the final. And I’m hopeful that in a month or two I’ll finally decide what I think of it – and needing that time means it is a great work of art (I guess).

The rest ranged from cute (Switzerland) to mediocre (Latvia, Macedonia, & Bulgaria) to atrocious (Malta, Greece, Armenia, Hungary, & Albania).

Tuesday’s semi was a sublime experience. Watching from the floor with the rabid fans, not a stinker in the group of songs delivered, and very good voting results. Last night was not as good. But I think it takes the marginal entries and the bad votes to make the good parts better. Knowing each act can be awful has you wondering what you’re going to see as each starts. The pain of watching Albania made the joy of watching Georgia even greater. Seeing a vote where Israel is voted out and Armenia is voted in means that Saturday night we have no idea how the vote will go.

And I left very very happy. I got to ask a question of the Georgia delegation at the follow on press conference and that led to my talking with a number of the people from their team after. They were all so happy making the final and when I said that I thought they had the best chance to win, it led to a fun conversation. They gave me a Georgia flag and I was waving it the whole way back to my hotel. And I’ll be waving it Saturday night.

It was a wonderful evening.

I was able to set up an interview with Thomas Niedermeyer, the head of the EBU voting system. And with some detailed questioning I was able to get answers about fraudulent voting in ESC (and it’s not what you’re expecting).

First off, Thomas is a very nice person. He looks pretty tired – this has got to be a killer week for him. But clearly smart and able to speak to the issues raised.

Ok, so on to the discussion. He first walked me through the system. Your phone number is your ID. So your SIM card in your mobile and your number for a land line. Because it’s the SIM card, not the location of the phone, I still can’t vote (my SIM card is American) even though I’m in Sweden. But someone from Europe visiting the U.S. can vote because they have a European SIM card. (That’s an expensive vote for the international call – but Zlata is worth it!)

Which makes the rumors of bussing a bunch of students to a border to vote, then drive over the border, swap SIM cards, and then vote again, pretty questionable. Yes you can do this – but there’s no need to drive anywhere. Just buy all the SIM cards and have people swap them where they are. That’s also really expensive. You’re buying a SIM card for every 20 votes. And it takes time to swap, then vote.

So many people can vote twice, once with their cell phone and then again with their landline. I don’t see this being of much use for organized fraud. But it probably does occur for people that are strong supporters of an act. On the flip side, it probably all evens out as this is an individual decision, not an organized effort.

But they don’t use just the number, they also use the extension. So each room in a hotel or office can vote. So a maid in a hotel, a very busy maid, could probably cast votes for 10 phones. Same for a cleaning person in an office building. But in this case it’s the people that already hold these jobs. Organizing existing employees – that’s a lot of work and in the course of it, several would tell the press. I’m sure individuals do this, but on their own. And so again, it should even out although it would give a slight advantage to the cultures that dominate the cleaning jobs.

So I hit him with my first killer question. I just open up my Skype account and start calling. I can automate that and each call will come from a different number. Now we’re cooking – thousands of votes from each computer. Yes, but… They don’t allow calls from Skype accounts. Damn, thought I had him.

Not to worry, I then had my next killer question. The golden rule of security software is you make your system public. (The disadvantage of hackers using that knowledge to break it is outweighed by the advantage of others pointing out holes to fix them.) And EBU keeps their system secret. Thomas replied that they keep it confidential not to hide the information from hackers, but because they don’t want to give their competitors the info on how to run a safe and thorough voting system. It’s for competitive advantage. Damn, foiled again.

I also asked him how secure the voting systems were in places like Belarus and Azerbaijan (where the concept of let the voters decide is not understood). He was pretty careful with his words here but did say that they have people there to watch the system and the individual votes are passed from there on to their central servers. Aside from his assurances, the fact that there were votes for Armenia in Azerbaijan is a giant sign that ESC is the one free vote that occurs in Azerbaijan.

Vote Fraud?

The bottom line is that there is no systemic vote fraud. First off, while there are lots of “I heard from a friend who heard from his brother who met a person who thinks he heard…”, there’s no specific evidence of anything. If fraud was attempted on the call in part, it would take a lot of people. And when a lot of people are involved – some talk.

The second is to directly hack the digame servers or network. Never say never on something like this, but they have those babies locked down tight. And unlike most systems where they have to be open to people and that provides multiple points of entry, these systems are only open to the phone switches. I think even the NSA would have trouble doing it because you would need physical access just to start.

It’s nice to claim VOTER FRAUD! If the act you love, or your country, does not do well. That beats the snot out of admitting that your favorite just was not that good. But it’s not happening. The system in place appears very well designed. And the final results are reasonable (while Buranovskiye Babushki makes me question the musical taste of Europe, they were clearly very popular).

Recording of interview

I’m a 57 year old guy where living on the edge is having a second beer. I haven’t been to a concert in decades. And yet…

Last night I found myself crying at times over an exquisitely beautiful song, screaming and waving a flag so hard I broke two of them (a group from Austria was nice enough to keep giving me another), totally mesmerized at times, and mostly having a giant smile on my face from utter joy. I gave my daughters a hard time about how nuts they were over some singers in their teens. Girls, I’m sorry. Now I understand. (Although really – N’Sync…)

I met a very nice couple there from New Zealand who literally travelled half way round the world to watch the show. They have done so for years. At the end she turned to me and said “you’re hooked now aren’t you?” Yes I am. I have not watched a concert for decades and now I’m hooked. It was the most amazing performance I have ever seen.

First off the depth of the performances was incredible. Out of 16 acts, every one of the 10 that go on to the final deserve to go on. As do a couple that didn’t make the cut. Every single act was world class. When the last one completed and they said it was time to vote the first thought that hit me was – wait, there’s only one I didn’t think should go on. Where are the mediocre ones?

Knowing nothing about how the locations work at the arena, I got tickets stage left figuring the floor would be interesting. And I was so excited to go, I got to the arena 2 hours early so I ended up near the front of the line. So I ended up against the barrier just 5′ away from the edge of the stage (the part that came out as a walkway). Awesome location.

The Swedes are some of the nicest people on earth. And that carries over to the crowd so you have this giant event, tons of people having to squeeze through security, through the doors, into the areas, and yet while people were eager to get in there, it was also a buoyant pleasant crowd. Very different from how a crowd that size acts in the U.S.

And boy were people charged up. Waiting outside the arena they had someone playing a keyboard and at times the crowd would sing the song he was playing. I met a lot of nice people, talking to them as we waited to get in, then waited inside the building to be allowed into the seating. While we were waiting inside I was talking to 4 guys from The Netherlands, all very excited because Anouk is a strong contender. And we then saw 2 guys walking by dressed up as orange chickens. I pointed them out to the Dutch men (orange is the royal color of The Netherlands) and they all shook their heads in national embarrassment.

The pre-show show was three very talented singers who sang a number of previous Eurovision winners as well as previous Swedish entries. An awesome way to get started.

Then the director came out and walked us through what we needed to do. Told us to watch out for the cameras as they swung in over our heads. Explained when we were supposed to do what during the opening and closing numbers, etc.

The opening was a bunch of elementary school children signing the song Euphoria. And then one child sang it – and absolutely beautiful rendition. Then Loreen came out and sang it with them. I had tears streaming down my face – and I don’t cry. Loreen finished by stepping down from the stage into the crowd on the floor.

It started with Austria. A pretty song, beautiful delivery. But not memorable. I liked it but it was not in the “this must go to the final category.” And it did not make it out.

Next was Estonia. Another very pretty song. This one got in you more than the Austria entry. I don’t know why but it grabbed me at least. And I think that is what did get it in the top 10.

Then came Slovenia. Wow. Hannah rocks it. ESC did a great job of building us up with these first 3 acts. I think this should have made the top 10. We were all screaming like crazy for her – she definitely would have made the top 10 if only the audience voted. But that energy does not fully come through in the TV broadcast. In the audience it owns you. On the TV it is presented to you.

Croatia then had a group of men singing. It was a nice switch from the first three female vocalists, both going to men and to a group. It’s a very pretty song and was well presented. But it didn’t stand a prayer against the others of the night. Croatia be proud – it was a quality entry.

I didn’t get to hear Emmelie sing. No, I didn’t. The crowd was probably 50% Danish (Copenhagen is 20 minutes away) and they want bat shit insane. The audience became a single screaming organism. And then they sang with her. Full throated, vibrant, energetic. The arena rendition of her song was a thing of power and beauty. I wanted to sing with them (but don’t know the words). Absolutely amazing experience. But I need to watch the video so I can hear her sing it.

Russian (and Ukrainian) pop at its best is the best in the world. And Dina delivered the best. She grabbed the audience and held us and carried us through her song. She has staging and backup singers and they add to it, but Dina owns you and it’s her, her voice, her movements, her expressions. World class.

And right after that we had Zlata from the Ukraine. She is also an awesome performer and her song Gravity is amazing. This should have been the performance of the night. But she was off. Not terribly but it was noticeable. Now good by Zlata is still an amazing experience. But it’s not world class. I’ll be cheering for her in the final, but she has got to be at her best Saturday.

Next was Anouk from The Netherlands. Another world class performance. A ballad where she picks up the audience and carries them into her world as she puts her song into each of us. At the end the audience went totally nuts.

And then came Montenegro, with 2 guys in space suits. I appreciated this. Eurovision is not Eurovision without some totally over the top, campy entry. Gotta have a groaner and this was it.

Lithuania was a male vocalist and he delivered a stellar performance. Not quite at the level of the best, but still amazing and well deserving of advancing to the final. And again, it was a nice change from the previous female vocalists. Having EBU determine the order worked really really well – we got the perfect change-up between acts.

Next was Alyona from Belarus. I think she is the most contentious artist at the show – people either love her or hate her. She was the only one where I heard boo’s when she was announced as one of the top 10. I don’t know if it’s her or if it’s Belarus but there’s something going on there. Anyways, she has a good song, with incredible staging. It starts with a disco ball spaceship opening up for her to step out. Lots of dancing, etc. And a really good song. Definitely deserved to go on to the final. (And for those that dislike her because of Belarus – she’s not the dictator so give it a rest.)

Moldova’s Aliona up to now has been mostly memorable for her hair styles, which are both flamboyant and stylish (although as a heterosexual guy, I’m not an authority on this). She’s a really good singer with a fantastic song, but the staging with her dress takes it up to amazing. I think she’ll make the top 10 in the final and while that will also be because of her voice and song, it will be the dress that closes the deal.

Ireland has finally left behind the curse of Jedward and delivered a killer performance. Male singers and they were incredibly physical. They owned the stage. And pulled the audience in. We were all screaming and jumping and waving our flags to go with them. Well deserving of going on to the top 10.

Cyprus delivered a beautiful song exquisitely sung. And Despina stands up there by herself and sings it. But she didn’t grab the audience. We loved listening to her and it was beautiful. But she didn’t pull us in. I would have like to see her make the final 10 but I understand why she didn’t.

Roberto from Belgium was the other sing along entry. The crowd went wild when he started (second only to Denmark) and the words to his song were flashed up on the backdrop. So we all (including me) sang with him. We were all totally pulled in and became part of the song. If that carries through on the TV, then he’s going to be in the top 10 of the final.

And we closed with Moje 3 from Serbia. Their act was very Eurosision-ary. The dresses, the staging, the acting out of the story in the song. And all three have really nice voices. But after the others it seemed not up to the level of the show. Enjoyable but not the best. It’s interesting, many claim being last is the best position. Because in this case I think it hurt them. If they had been early, before the top acts, they might have made a better impression with no previous acts to compare with. But compared to some of the previous, it was too cheesy.

As they called out the top 10, lots of cheering for each (with booing mixed in for Belarus). Then when it was two left, the entire audience started chanting UKRAINE, UKRAINE. Gigantic cheering when Ukraine was the next one announced. And then with one left it was almost a whisper throughout as people were praying anouk, anouk. When she was announced as the 10^th, the place erupted.

Lots of dry ice used for several performances. We had tinsel dropped on us for one act – that was cool. The tracked camera almost took me out a couple of times as it came zooming by. There is nothing like being right there on the edge of the stage.

The top performances were Emmelie & Dina, followed closely by Anouk and Zlata. Many say these are the 4 strongest entries of the entire show. And they may be right, but I want to see Moran and Cascada first as I think they could also deliver at this level. And maybe others???

All of these women are beyond incredible. Their voices, how they grab you and suck you into their song, how they own your emotions – there are not words to convey it. The winner will be the one that delivers the performance of her lifetime on Saturday.

Short answer – YES! They are an absolute blast.

Last night the Israeli team sponsored a party. I’m 57 and have not been an avid party-goer since my 20′s. But I figure I’m out here and I should try everything, so I hiked over. Yes, your reporter was making this sacrifice to bring you the news.

And a big thank you to the ESC security person who got me there. She first gave me wrong directions. But then realized it, ran a half mile after me to find me, and gave me correct directions. Awesome example of how great the ESC people here have been.

Ok, so I get there around 10:00pm just as things are starting. And the M.C. gets up and tells us that we’re going to party the Israeli way. If anyone ever tells you that – run fast, run far. Because the Israeli way is apparently to have grandfathers get up there and give very boring speeches about something.

How bad was it? Have you ever had a kidney stone? Where the pain makes you want to scream in agony. And it goes on and on and you don’t know if it’s ever going to stop? This was worse.

What were they talking about? I tried to ignore it but it was something about planting a tree in the office where we were having the party. Or something like that. Grandpa was very passionate about the tree. Or the office. Or something.

Finally after what seemed like 17 hours of torture, but was probably under 15 minutes (thus proving Einstein’s theory about how time is relative), we got on to the good stuff.

They announced at the beginning that 14 of the acts would be there to play. We ended up with 9. So 5 bailed. It was still awesome. We had Israel, Germany, Albania, Malta, Latvia, Macedonia, Greece, Armenia, and Bulgaria.

I don’t think you could find a dance club anywhere to match last night. 9 of the top bands in Europe, playing a wide variety of music, and having the time of their life up there, playing for fun, not for a paycheck, an award, or anything else – just because they love playing music.

Most live music events you get either cover bands that play songs you well know, poorly. Or they play their own songs which make it very clear why they have not hit the big time. But here you had these groups playing their best songs, and they were ones we, or at least I, don’t know because they are played only in their own country. Really good songs.

And for all the jokes people make about ESC, this brought home one very basic fact – you have to be incredibly good to make it to ESC. The quality of the music was world class. Every one of them. Listening to really good musicians, even if the genre is not one of my favorites, is a joy (except Country Western music – that’s awful no matter how good the artist).

To have 9 bands this good, and this diverse, all playing at one venue? And in a small night club setting? I don’t think this happens anywhere else.

Moran – amazing. And she has a wide repertoire of songs she’s really good at. She’s not quite at Pastora Soler’s level, but she’s damn close. Always a joy to listen to. And I think 10 years from now she’ll be one of the stars of Europe. The girls from Germany – OMG. Energy, enthusiasm, and an awesome song. I could listen to them all night. The guys from Albania – I haven’t listened to rock much since I had to sit through a Pink Floyd concert 30 years ago. But these guys are good. (For those of you wondering why any of us in the 70′s thought Pink Floyd was good, when the decade is as bland as the 70′s and you’re really stoned, hearing pigs oink in a song sounds cool. We’re the 70′s really that bad? Yes.)

Diva of the night goes to Elitsa Todorova (Bulgaria) who at the end said “We’re going to win” and then stormed off the stage flinging her drumsticks in the air. Uh girlfriend, you’re not that good.

Class act of the night goes to Israel who closed it out with a tribute to “their good friends Turkey” playing Turkey’s winning ESC song.

Lots of dancing, most of it with everyone in a big circle doing something. Apparently all European cultures have a dance where everyone gets in a circle, what differs from country to country is what moves they make in the circle.

An amazing evening. So for those wondering if everyone here is having so much fun it should be illegal – yes.